THINK! UDM IS THE RIGHT CHOICE |
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THINK! UDM IS THE RIGHT CHOICE |
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1. INTRODUCTION As we celebrate our first decade it is worthwhile to recall the core founding principles of the UDM as enshrined in the party constitution: AIMS AND OBJECTIVES The Party will set free the creative power inherent in our diversity, and will co-operate with all stake-holders to ensure a good quality of life, with individual freedom and obligations for all, through good governance and civil order, towards becoming a Winning Nation. The Party commits itself to the establishment of a true South African constitutional democracy, which rejects racial domination, and which respects, upholds and protects human dignity, life, liberty and the prosperity of its citizens. The Party shall uphold the freedom of religion, culture and traditions of our diverse communities. The Party shall promote and protect freedom of association, with formal constitutional structures as well as informal- or non-Governmental structures in order to prevent coercion. The Party shall endeavour to ensure that the Government, on all three levels, function effectively and that the interests of the whole population are best served. Constitutional powers should optimally be devolved to the lowest possible sphere of government and preferably originally established at that level, while the national integrity of the state is maintained and broad national interests are served by the Central Government. The Party shall promote a culture of consultation with communities, in order to create mutual responsibility for good and balanced governance and not impose its will on the people. The Party shall fight corruption and restore the confidence of the people in all Government structures. VISION MISSION PARTY PLATFORM These core founding values remain as relevant today as on the day we launched. That is why our Anniversary slogan is: “THINK! UDM IS THE RIGHT CHOICE!” Fundamental values A vote for the UDM is a vote for these values. Thirteen years after the achievement of political freedom we need to ask how free are South Africans. How much has freedom grown for South Africans of all races and creeds since 1994? Reviewing thirteen years of freedom The UDM understands that if these conditions are lacking or inadequate, freedom for all has not yet been achieved. Unemployment and poverty is a direct contradiction of freedom. Real freedom – political, social and economic – provides dignity to a nation. On the other hand, unemployment and poverty undermines it. Similarly, crime, rampant HIV/AIDS and inadequate education are all factors that undermine freedom. Whilst Apartheid undermined the majority’s dignity and freedom, the current levels of unemployment, poverty, crime and HIV/AIDS are taking many South Africans back to that same state of hardship and suffering experienced under Apartheid. Therefore, when we assess South Africa since 1994 we need to ask: Are South Africans more free now than thirteen years ago? The answers are well-documented and visible all over our country. Despite major strides that have been taken: unemployment is rife; poverty and homelessness are evident everywhere, HIV/AIDS affects millions, crime is holding people hostage in their own homes, education fails to provide adequate skills for employment and the majority are still without property and landless. This is a clear indication that in thirteen years we have not seen the advancement of our freedom that we deserve. 2. OUR HISTORY The Party participated in its first national and provincial elections in 1999, only 18 months after its launch. The UDM sent a strong team of people with experience to Parliament, and gained representation in six provincial legislatures, being the official opposition in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo. The UDM, as can be seen from these results, was growing at a fast pace although it had no resources and basically grew from word-of-mouth. In 1999 the UDM in Parliament challenged the Government on the need to investigate the Arms Deal and after thorough research the UDM released a document entitled “Comrades in Corruption” focussing on the corruption in Government and the Arms Deal, and the allocation of tenders to friends and comrades. Today the UDM has been vindicated on a number of the things that we had listed in that document . The UDM continued to do research on its policies and at its next national congress, in 2001, adopted a further developed set of policies collected in a document called “The Government Must Do More”. The public will remember that it was at this stage that Government was obsessed with the GEAR policy which resulted in thousands upon thousands of retrenchments. The UDM handed over those policies to the President of the Country in Parliament in full view of the nation. And today the language of Government has changed and they are now talking about the “developmental state” and “infrastructure development” as we have been urging since 2001. Indeed, we argued in those policy documents that it is “immoral to place the fate of South Africans on an economic policy that focuses on stocks and bonds only”. We further predicted that the World Trade Organisation (WTO) would be a failure because the architects of the WTO are not honest; countries like France and the America intervene in their economies with subsidies and the like to the tune of trillions of dollars, and they are doing this in the interest of their citizens. But, South Africa’s government withdrew the tariffs for sectors like textiles and agriculture, resulting in great job losses. How correct the UDM was, because today the Government is talking about bringing back those protections, as per the recent announcement by the Minister of Trade and Industry. Unfortunately the UDM’s ascendancy was interrupted by the introduction of floor-crossing. The African National Congress (ANC) made it a point of trying to destroy the UDM by using chequebook politics to lure away leaders we had groomed and so attempted to deplete our human and financial resources. Most of those defectors were rewarded with lucrative posts such as parliamentary whips, ambassadors, and provincial MECs. The whole exercise, as far the UDM is concerned, was designed to portray the UDM as a dwindling party. We also faced an onslaught from the ruling party by being denied access to public places for our meetings; they declared certain places as “no-go areas” for the UDM. Some of our members were violently targeted, and our Secretary-General Sifiso Nkabinde was gunned down (the court verdict confirmed the involvement of the ANC). In almost all these shootings and killings the hand of the ANC was visible as was confirmed by the courts. The state-controlled media was not friendly either; when we invited them to cover our rallies, they would be asking the stupid question before the event had even started: “Is it newsworthy?” - sheer arrogance. One of the highlights for the UDM during this period was our Constitutional Court challenge, regarding the floor-crossing law. We feel we have once more been vindicated, because the ruling party is today feeling the pressure from the voters that floor-crossing is immoral and they are now considering to change or to scrap it. In 2000 we participated in our first local government elections, where we grew by almost 240 councillors nationwide, and also won the King Sabata Dalindyebo municipality (Umtata). Even at that level the ruling party never wanted to cooperate and destabilised that municipality. The municipality was squeezed financially and hamstrung by the regional and provincial authorities controlled by the ruling party. During the next floor-crossing period chequebook politics again reigned supreme and control of the council was wrested from the UDM. In 2004 we again participated in national and provincial elections and won ten national seats and representation in six provincial legislatures. During the subsequent floor-crossing period we lost three seats at national level and five seats in different provinces. Our observation is that the ruling party wants a one-party state and that their election machinery is geared towards this. For instance, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) presiding officers are predominantly drawn from the ranks of COSATU - who are in alliance with the ruling party. We have also campaigned during our first ten years for the need for electoral reform so that the people can directly elect their own President, and for the introduction of a constituency-based voting system, as well as the amendment of the laws governing party funding. The UDM has been vocal on a number of issues over the years and the Party has produced a number of write-ups on pressing issues including, of late, the ANC succession debate. In 1999 we helped the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) to form a government in KwaZulu-Natal when voters indicated that the majority supported them, and we helped the ANC in 2004 in KwaZulu-Natal when the majority of voters supported them. Similarly in 2005 we helped to form a governing coalition in Cape Town when the majority of that city’s voters supported the Democratic Alliance. We exposed corruption on a number of issues over the years and the Party has produced a number of write-ups on pressing issues, including of late the ANC succession issue - the address Mr Holomisa recently delivered at the Africa Heritage Society is available on the UDM website. To keep ourselves in line with the views and aspirations of our general membership, we conduct regular provincial congresses. Also, since our launch, we conducted three national congresses where strategy, policy and leadership were thoroughly reviewed; the last congress was held at Walter Sisulu University in Umtata in 2005. Finally, as we are celebrating our Tenth Anniversary we need to debate and discuss the UDM ascendancy plan to prepare for the years ahead. The prophets of doom who thought that the introduction of the floor-crossing would extinguish the UDM have been proven wrong, in fact the parties formed in this floor-crossing have failed and crumbled into nothing. 3. STATE OF THE ORGANISATION – ASCENDANCY PLAN We are currently in a rebuilding phase after a sustained series of deliberate attempts to weaken the party. Whereas the ruling party’s initial resistance to the UDM was characterised by physical intimidation, no-go areas, occasional violence and regrettably even taking the lives of our members, it changed tack in the year 2000. A series of enticing offers were made by the ANC to leading members of the UDM and today many of those people find themselves in lucrative positions such as Ambassadors and MECs. Soon thereafter the ANC foisted upon an unsuspecting electorate, the political thuggery of floor-crossing, which formalised a mechanism to openly play chequebook politics. As we all know the ANC successfully enticed a number of public representatives that we had invested a great deal of resources and time in. Nevertheless the UDM has responded to these challenges and continues to regain at the ballot box that which is taken away from us and our voters through immoral and illegitimate means. In the most recent floor-crossing window period we sustained no losses at National or Provincial level, and only 5 losses at Local level. It demonstrates that our strategies are paying dividends and also allows us to concentrate even greater resources on our future growth. With that in mind the UDM is firmly focused on the 2009 National and Provincial elections. We recently conducted a National Workshop involving our leadership from all nine provincial structures. As a result of this intensive Workshop we have developed an Ascendancy Plan, which was formally adopted and ratified by the National Executive Committee recently. This blueprint will guide the activities of all party structures over the course of the next two years. For the notice of the general membership, herewith then a very basic skeleton of the Ascendancy Plan which will be followed by a series of workshops: Provincial planning sessions (with Provincial Executive Committees)Membership drives for existing branches, establish new branches Provincial planning sessions (without Provincial Executive Committees)NEC to deploy MPs/MPLs to assist with capacity building Pre-election phase Election phase One of the major obstacles to the faster growth of the UDM has been that some people at various levels (be it branch, district, regional or provincial level) have thought of the party as their personal fiefdom. Such people have taken it upon themselves to bar other people from joining, assuming leadership positions or being elected as public representatives. This mentality must be condemned because it does not belong to the UDM culture and runs contrary to the UDM Mission and Vision. The truth of the matter is that the UDM has grown – but not nearly as much as it could potentially grow – and we need to intensify our growth efforts and invest our resources to identify and nurture potential leaders. Our limited resources have made this a difficult task in the past, but we are determined that many more UDM voices must be heard on a variety of burning issues facing the nation. If we do not currently possess the people with the necessary skills and experience in our ranks then we are duty-bound to go and recruit them. Therefore in the next six months it is vital that we do a skills audit in our party, in particular among the youth membership. Many of them have graduated from various institutions recently. We need to compile a database to ensure that we begin to involve them in important tasks like policy development. It is crucial that we build a strong internal UDM intelligentsia that can engage with the challenges facing the nation today. It means that the Youth, Student and Women structures need to evaluate their own structures and strategies in order to coordinate their activities with the mother body. This month we are re-launching our website. It will require that the Youth, Student, Women and National structures must make use of that facility to engage on a regular (fortnightly or even weekly) basis with issues affecting the daily lives of all South Africans. The wish of most political parties is to run the Government one day. Obviously the UDM cannot expect to step into national Government tomorrow. But in the immediate future our target for our ascendancy plan must be to ascend to a higher position, preferably as official opposition. But we cannot hope to achieve that if we do not have branches in every town, village, suburb etc. etc. If we spread that way we will quickly produce the leaders and capacity to become the first and most realistic alternative to the ruling party. In order to achieve that we may need to revisit the way the National Office is structured: Can the way Organising Department is structured currently allow it to monitor the mammoth task of so many branches? Indeed, can the Organising Department in its current format set benchmarks, strategies and remedies for each provincial structure in terms of how many branches should be established and maintained as a proportion of the province’s registered voters? At National level we are no longer going to settle for sweet-tongued rosy reports of branch growth. We need to see tangible results of branch growth, coupled to minimum standards for the number of branches that will participate in provincial congresses. 4. STATE OF THE NATION It is therefore welcome to detect a newfound seriousness in Government’s recent pronouncements regarding the fight against crime. To somebody outside Government it finally appears as if Government is giving this matter the attention it deserves. When we consider the nature of crime in South Africa, the overwhelming feature (that also causes the most distress for the general public) is the exceptional violence that is used in the commission of many crimes. In certain categories of crime (such as some cash-in-transit robberies and armed robberies) it seems that the perpetrators are seemingly well-trained. Whilst in all categories it is evident that the perpetrators are not only willing but experienced in extreme violence. The serious and violent offences outweigh minor and common offences seen in most other countries, in that they range from car hijackings to heists, from pick pocketing to robbery, from common assault to murder, from attempted murder to serial killing, from sexual harassment to rape, from selling cigarettes to under-aged children to drug trafficking etc. The ordinary innocent citizens are caught in the crossfire and subjected to a perpetual state of fear, from the supposedly peaceful environment of the home to the workplace where the economy of the country is supposed to be generated. When one closely examines all these acts of crime one draws the conclusion that the perpetrators are hell-bent on undermining the system of governance in the country. Whilst once South Africa was a beacon of hope at the dawn of the new democracy, it has now turned out to be a safe haven for sophisticated domestic and international organised crime syndicates. The view that seeks to glorify or justify this criminality as something stemming merely from unemployment and poverty must be rejected. Whilst our unemployment and poverty levels are lamentably high, other countries with similar levels of poverty and unemployment do not suffer from such high levels of crime, nor such violent criminals. South Africans are proud of their liberal constitution. It informs the human rights culture that most South Africans embrace and which has drawn many people from across the world to South Africa. Unfortunately our new democracy’s openness in terms of our borders and migration policy has been exploited by criminal syndicates and ruthless individuals who do not have any respect for human rights and for whom human life holds little value. Thus we see the callous and indiscriminate killing of people after they have been robbed, even though they pose no threat to their attacker. In order to respond to this type of violent crime we require a certain type of police force (aside from the many associated initiatives in terms of better laws, improved court systems and better correctional services). When looking at what sort of police service we require to deal with the very high levels of crime, especially violent crime, there are again many aspects that are currently receiving attention to varying degrees. However, it is our contention that even if all the criminal justice and police specific initiatives currently underway were perfectly conceived the current crisis could not be adequately addressed due to one single factor. This critical factor is police management. History and the current management of SAPS Conclusion Decisions of the nature proposed here would require the Ministry of Safety and Security to study the internal climate of the SAPS, to indicate the levels of morale throughout the entire force. Such a study would allow Government to properly assess the situation and take informed decisions regarding the true composition and capabilities of the current management and command personnel of the SAPS. 4.2. Signs of civil disobedience Sometimes the lack of decisive action by government to solve these issues, like Khutsong, lies at the heart of the escalating unrest. It creates a precedent that in order to be heard, a community needs to resort to protests. Where we are fortunate in this country, however, is not that we don’t know who is doing this; the media have been helpful in pointing us to which people and organisations are doing this. At face value, the picture portrayed seems to indicate that citizens are not being listened to and hence they resort to public protests against lack of service delivery. The second conclusion could be that there are forces who have identified an opportunity to vent their anger and frustrations under the guise of ‘community concerns’, when in actual fact they are engaged in settling political scores. We seem to be witnessing the first phases of dry runs of civil disobedience in different communities and provinces. It would appear that these protests are well-timed and coordinated. If that is the case, we must be deeply concerned about the possibility that the people with revolutionary intentions behind this coordinated plan will one day trigger a simultaneous uprising in all of these communities. The question that many people are asking is: Why is Government silent, why is it not acting against Tripartite Alliance-sponsored protests? For how long will Government hesitate to take decisive action? 4.3. Floor-crossing, electoral reform and party funding Electoral reform is necessary to introduce greater accountability into South African politics. The current low levels of accountability have led to the abuse of power and to a strong decline in citizen’s trust in participatory democracy. Many voters when called upon to vote and participate more actively in our democracy are rightfully asking: “Why bother?” The UDM is campaigning for separate elections where voters can directly elect the President of the country as well as an electoral system that includes constituencies. The UDM has taken note of the noises emanating from ruling party that floor-crossing might be reviewed. We believe this must necessarily trigger a consideration of electoral reform in general. But either way we welcome this development. Other necessary electoral reform As far as the IEC is concerned, we must recognise that internationally such bodies are composed at board-level of representatives from and endorsed by all political parties, unlike the current situation here where the ruling party uses its parliamentary majority to nominate the candidates that it prefers. Also at administrative level we must question the wisdom of COSATU members being used as electoral officials throughout the electoral process, when COSATU is unashamedly aligned to a political party contesting elections. With regards to the question of political party funding, we are seeing increasing scandals about the ruling party and the millions that it receives in clandestine manner from dubious sources. These strange transactions involve government tenders and taxpayer money as well as the exploitation of national resources. We need to regulate party funding to prevent a situation where the ruling party, the government, and indeed the country, is up for sale to the highest bidder. We are behind best international practice and urgently need to debate the manner and form of party funding. Questions that require answering include: is it the private sector or the taxpayer that should fund multi-party democracy; is foreign funding acceptable; is proportional funding encouraging the disproportionate growth of the ruling party; and is the process ring-fenced from government tenders? Politics and money are, for better or worse, inseparable. It is a reality of modern politics that political parties require significant funds to operate in any meaningful way. None of this is inherently bad provided that two very important principles for political party funding are stringently upheld. These are: firstly, that political party funding is equitable; and secondly, that political party funding is transparent. 4.4. Politicisation of the public service and public institutions Whilst Government is talking about centralizing the civil service to streamline service delivery we need to be clear about this: as long as the current deployment strategy and cronyism continues service delivery will fail. Whether at local or national level, whether they are ANC branch leaders or ANC NEC members, people take their attitudes and sense of power in the ANC into the civil service with them. It leads to bad decision-making. Often the best qualified and experienced people are overlooked or forced out of the civil service because ANC cronyism rewards incompetence and mediocrity in return for party loyalty. This cronyism has opened the door for corruption. Many of these lackeys have been caught with their fingers in the till, stealing and defrauding taxpayer money. Some have even been exposed as directly funding the ANC with their illicit abuse of the taxpayer, such as happened in the Oilgate scandal and many other similar cases. 4.5. The economy, jobs and poverty South Africans are suspicious and mistrust Government because of perceptions that Government is not equitably distributing the resources of the country. A new privileged political elite exclusively enjoys the resources. There is no consensus on a macro-economic policy that can transform the economy in a manner that could create and spread wealth wider and improve the lot of disadvantaged majority. There are in particular concerns about the inadequacies and contradictions of the fiscal and industrial policies. The harsh reality is that we are suffering from: The prospects of reversing this dismal trend appear farfetched under the present economic policies and performance of the ruling party. Consequently the gains of liberation in 1994 have not translated into real economic freedom for all. Our economy suffers from jobless growth due to the confusion created by an ambivalent Tripartite Alliance (ANC, Cosatu and SACP). This ruling clique preaches elimination of unemployment in the streets and legislate retrenchments and greater unemployment in parliament. The governments of USA, Europe, China, India and most others recognise the responsibility that they have towards their citizens and intervene to protect their domestic jobs and businesses. A Government that proposes anything less does not care about its people, and is not willing to accept responsibility for their welfare and prosperity. During the UDM National Congress of 2001, the UDM adopted the policy of responsible government intervention in the economy through infrastructure development to create jobs. A worrying feature of our economy is the number of people who have been excluded from the formal financial, banking and credit sectors. Slowly that is being addressed, but before the majority of the country can properly begin to access credit they are now faced with new obstacles and threats due to the manner in which the Reserve Bank manages interest rates. Are we running an economy that coincides with the realities of a developing world economy, because we are running the highest interest rates among developing countries? When we question the Reserve Bank’s decision-making we are told that the Reserve Bank is independent, yet it seems that the large banks and corporates have influence. The effect is that exorbitant interest rates and the threat of interest rate hikes hangs like an axe over newcomers to the credit market. It excludes vast numbers of people from owning their own homes, whilst the small percentage that do succeed in obtaining home loans or small business loans are under constant threat of repossession and bankruptcy due to escalating interest rates. A UDM Government will focus on job creation and stimulating economic growth, investor confidence and efficient service delivery, but will be equally aware, and willing, to responsibly intervene in the economy to open up business and employment opportunities for all South Africans. Because South Africans deserve to have an input in how the economy is run and how job creation is pursued, the UDM proposes the establishment of a Presidential Council on Planned Sustainable Development representing all stakeholders in society, not just Government, Business and Labour only. This forum will afford broader society the opportunity to advise a UDM Government on issues related to the economy, infrastructure development and job creation. THE BROKEN PROMISES OF THE PAST THIRTEEN YEARS: Because of the frustrations caused by these broken promises we are beginning to see protests in communities, which unfortunately at times have featured violence. Some of these protests also seem to provide a cover for political infighting in the ANC. 4.6. Role of SA on the continent As a result of the rapid success of South Africa’s international role and its fast-growing influence in and regarding Africa, there have been those who have viewed or portrayed South Africa as latter-day imperialists. As a result there have been many attempts to discredit SA by saying that our motives are not noble and that we are only engaged in promoting opportunities for South African businesses on the continent. All right-thinking South Africans will recognize the correctness of promoting and protecting the advancement of the African continent. It is therefore correct that many millions in taxpayer money have been dedicated to peacekeeping, diplomacy and institutional development of African institutions. The former exploiters of the continent who have traded trillions to their own benefit with and from the continent had never dreamt that there would one day be a country on the continent as strong and dedicated as SA, who would be able to compete with them in terms of diplomatic, military and economic might. Obviously some of these former colonial masters dislike South Africa’s influence cutting into theirs and resort to smear campaigns. The main threat to NEPAD, the AU and other African development initiatives is that certain African leaders have now become personal and petty. The sniping by some leaders about other leader’s diplomatic efforts is indicative of this pettiness. Some have questioned the NEPAD process as envisioned by South Africa, whereas others are questioning the motives of those who seek to create a “United States of Africa”. 4.7. Succession issue I have been fortunate enough to have been invited by the media and certain institutions to give my opinion on this issue. I therefore felt I should share with the general membership what I’ve said in these forums. On 13 September this year, I addressed the Africa Heritage Society on the ANC succession issue: “The fact that I’m standing here today addressing you about the succession issue within another party is indicative of a weakness in our electoral system. By rights, when we are discussing the succession of a new President for the country, we should have leaders like myself, standing at podiums such as these, promoting our manifestoes and agendas. Instead, we have an electoral system that does not allow the voters to directly elect their President, and all of us are sidelined while shadowy factions within the ruling party battle it out for control of State power. The situation is further exacerbated by the ANC’s refusal to run open and public candidate nomination and election processes, as happens in Tanzania and many other African countries, where you have separate elections for MPs and the President. As voters we must sit anxiously and wait for a few thousand delegates at the ANC National Conference to endorse the winning faction’s choice of President. In fact, chances are that they will elect an NEC which will be dominated by one faction, who in turn will be entrusted with the decision of appointing a new President for the country. In other words, only a small group of ANC members will make it to the Conference, they will elect an even smaller cabal, who in turn will be the only ones with any say about the next President of the country. When we look at the growing reaction in many communities against crime, floor-crossing, lack of service delivery and corruption, it is obvious that the majority of voters have become tired of being disempowered and left behind by an electoral system that gives them a Government not willing to consult properly or to be held accountable. The desire for power by some of these factions indicates that they won’t even hesitate to descend to tribalism to advance their cause. Similarly, we’ve seen them showing total disrespect for the judicial system and its officers, and some have even campaigned for the closure of state institutions like the Scorpions. It is very disconcerting that it seems businessmen who became the target of official investigations, be it in the Arms Deal or relating to taxes, went searching for political horses to back within the ruling party, with the apparent hope of future protection from prosecution. It was very disturbing to see people like Brett Kebble openly claiming to be supporting specific ANC leaders and specific ANC structures, like the Youth League. These people are using their resources to claim political conspiracy to deflect investigation of their crimes. In the past four years we have suddenly seen an explosion of conspiracies. Every time somebody is caught with their fingers in the cookie jar they cry political conspiracy. It is deeply worrying that it seems as if people with resources are in a position to attempt to dictate the pace of development and transformation in our country and that they would fund active campaigns against state institutions like the Scorpions and the judiciary. On the other hand, the authorities who have a mandate to run the country, have either run out of ideas, or just remain silent on burning issues. No leadership is provided, and crucial decisions are not made on a number of issues, such as the Khutsong violence. Even if the public at times complain about the lack of efficiency and delivery by Ministers and DGs, the Government and ruling party remain quiet. It is that silence that worries many in this country, when no decisive action is taken when it is clearly necessary. For instance, the National Lottery, which was directing money to good causes, has been closed down even though it was running on credit, not debt. Yet no action is taken against the relevant Minister or his senior officials, because the ruling party has told itself it is in charge irrespective of performance, while the ever-willing state-controlled media attempt to portray a rosy picture. This is why we are seeing people moving into the streets to the great inconvenience and cost of whole communities and the economy in general. At the same time such protests sends out the wrong message that if you want Government to listen to you it is necessary to resort to public violence, vandalism, throwing stones and burning tyres. Precisely because of this silence of the ruling party some of this sporadic violence could actually be the result of forces who have identified an opportunity to vent their anger and frustrations under the guise of ‘community concerns’, when in actual fact they are engaged in settling political scores. We seem to be witnessing the first phases of dry runs of civil disobedience in different communities and provinces. It would appear that these protests are well-timed and coordinated. If that is the case, we must be deeply concerned about the possibility that the people with revolutionary intentions behind this coordinated plan will one day trigger a simultaneous uprising in all of these communities. The worrying thing is that many of these protests are led by some Tripartite Alliance structures. It seems that the centre is not holding. However, we must thank President Mbeki who was bold enough to say months ago that the nation should debate the succession issue, although he knows that there is no forum outside the ANC where such debate can influence the outcome. This runs contrary to the most recent pronouncements of the ANC National Executive Committee who want to “reclaim” the succession debate. It’s a bit late for that! The initiative has been taken long ago by numerous factions to promote their candidates in a variety of legitimate and underhand ways. Those of you who are here – with whom I worked during the liberation struggle period when I was still in charge of Transkei – will agree with me that this is not the same Tripartite Alliance that we knew. Today, anybody and everybody in the Alliance can call a press conference and once he/she gets in front of the media microphones they get excited and say anything, adding to the confusion and the deepening tensions within the Alliance. It is because of that new culture that they have adopted that the open defiance of the leadership has begun and on this very topic of the succession. To make things worse, the ANC Secretary General, hardly a month after the ANC Policy Conference came out with the distorted idea of a Prime Minister. The question why did he not raise it at that Conference or include it in the discussion document? Turning to the identification and election of an ANC President, my experience with the ANC is that they have a culture which is often not known or understood. In particular this culture is always attributed to the era of the late OR Tambo. We saw this culture in 1994 when President Mandela thought that because Cyril Ramaphosa being SG and next on the ANC parliamentary list would be the automatic person to choose as Deputy President of the country. After all Mandela himself would have thought that democratically the ANC had indicated who his Deputy President should be. But Mandela was advised differently and the result was that Mbeki was appointed Deputy President. The advice that he was given was that Mbeki was always the heir-apparent. This culture of selecting a leader seems to have only been known among the exiles, whilst Madiba and those who were in jail or in the country seem to have been caught off-guard by this so-called culture. Since 1994 certain sections of the ANC have sought to undermine that culture of anointing leaders and on paper it seems that they have succeeded because today there are open campaigns for and against leaders. Yes, we have seen campaigns directed at President Mbeki himself, which are clearly designed to create doubts about his ability to lead. Where I think they have succeeded in a big way is that you find the leadership which had been in exile have split into separate factions, with some fearing the possibility that Zuma might challenge Mbeki; in the “ANC of old” the matter would have been handled in a different manner and not in public. It must be said therefore that the ANC that will deal with these issues at the Conference is not the same ANC of the 1990/1997 Conferences. The members of the ANC might have their own opinions about who they may want to lead them and they might want to debate the succession in an open way. Precisely because they realise that they are no longer in exile, and that they now have influence over government and government policy. They will expect the leaders of the ANC to take them into their confidence and be open about policy and the direction of both the party and government. The old style of the leadership prescribing and the members blindly following has been seriously undermined, at least from what we read in the newspapers. The danger of these campaigns is that they could easily portray Mbeki as a lame-duck President, which would undermine his stature in the eyes of foreign powers. The question the country needs to ask itself is whether we can afford to be saddled for the next two years with a President that is viewed as a lame duck. These campaigns undermine the image of the country. Whoever succeeds Mbeki in 2009 will have to fix the damage that has been done to the image of both Mbeki and the country. Already there are members of the Tripartite Alliance who are openly campaigning for another ANC President to replace Mbeki, names mentioned include Jacob Zuma, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Kgalema Motlanthe, Joel Netshithenze, Cyril Ramaphosa and Tokyo Sexwale. It looks like these internal ANC campaigns for various leaders have caught the national leadership off guard and the ANC will have to do soul-searching at their December Conference about what went wrong with their way of doing things. The damage that has been done, and the defiance we have witnessed means that they will have to ask themselves: What went wrong, why this sudden scramble for power, is it ideological or about the control of resources? If it is the latter, then the ANC as a whole must scrutinise their so-called “deployment” strategy when they sent cadres into society, in particular to public institutions. There is a general view that the deployment of these cadres has meant that incompetent people were advanced over competent people purely because of their ANC membership status. It became a get-rich-quick scheme for some comrades. Obviously this trend filtered down to even the Local Government level. Following the examples of the luminaries above them even councillors would award themselves and their friends or family tenders, never concerned with delivery or quality and purely in pursuit of wealth. In the same vein, the Conference delegates will have to consider how some of their leaders have brought the country into disrepute and how do they get out of that quagmire. THIRD TERM CONFUSION The delegates at the ANC Conference would be well-advised to seek clarity from their leaders about exactly where the word ‘third term’ fits into the debate; are they by proxy endorsing the amendment of the country’s Constitution to allow Mbeki a longer stay in the highest office? LIKELY SCENARIOS But in the event that Mbeki and his camp retain control over the ANC leadership, you can expect they will play a major role in electing an ANC Deputy President and future President of South Africa. In fact, any camp that wins in December will definitely dominate the National Executive Committee. The second scenario, which one can look at is where the current ANC Deputy President, will not challenge Mbeki for ANC President, and simply contest the Deputy President position. Such a scenario would defuse tensions and would be seen as a compromise to unite the factions. In the process it would help Zuma to buy time for himself against the Scorpions, and keep his options open to become President of the country. If he is acquitted before 2009 it would force the NEC to acknowledge him as the leading contender to become President of the country. The third scenario would be where some of the aspirant candidates – like Sexwale, Ramaphosa etc. etc. – would strike a deal with President Mbeki to support his re-election as ANC President on condition his/her name is considered to lead the country in 2009. Therefore the position of ANC Deputy President will be key in the forthcoming Conference, especially if Zuma challenges Mbeki for President, because the delegates will have to ensure that they elect somebody in that position who can be groomed in the coming two years to take over a President of the country. The fourth scenario, is where the former “internal” struggle veterans, like ex-UDF and Cosatu leaders, would say it is their turn to elect the ANC leadership, since first Mandela and then the exiles were given an opportunity. One should expect a tough battle if there is a campaign along those lines, and we can expect a strong rebellion, similar to what we saw at the National General Council last year which successfully demanded that Zuma must continue as Deputy President of the ANC and that he must fully participate in the activities of the party. The fifth scenario is that both Zuma and Mbeki might be taking punches for the real candidates that are hiding in their shadows. If one looks at the lists that are doing the rounds, the Zuma Camp seems to be consistent on who they want as his number two. On the Mbeki camp’s side it is not consistent, especially now that Joel Netshitenze has once again said he is not interested. One suspects that some candidates would like to see both Zuma and Mbeki as their shields, because they might fear people starting to dig up dirt on them once they reveal their candidacy. The media reports that Tokyo Sexwale or Cyril Ramaphosa might run have been noted, as well as their evasiveness when directly confronted with the question of their candidacy. There is no doubt that Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Zuma’s campaign is very sophisticated and they seem to understand the procedures and culture of the ANC. However, Cyril is one individual, if he were to accept the nomination, who I think can be taken seriously, given his popularity within the ANC. The last two ANC National Conferences confirmed that. The programme of President Mbeki of emancipating women seems to be gaining momentum in ANC structures, especially for top positions. So we should expect that what Mbeki began with the appointment of a woman as Deputy President might continue after 2009. The sixth scenario involves the old guard – like Mandela, Gertrude Shope, Mrs Sisulu etc. etc. – intervening out of concern about the direction which their movement is going. It would be an interesting period if they were to intervene, by for instance suggesting who would be a compromise candidate to take the ANC forward. Whether that old guard would even want to discuss this new thing called a ‘third term’ is entirely questionable. Of course this depends entirely on whether the old guard has any real influence left over the structures of the ANC. But I guess that every aspirant Presidential candidate (whether for ANC or country) would not leave the old guard out of their consultations. Whoever will be taking the baton from Mbeki in 2009 as President of the country, the people of South Africa who have no say in his/her election, will expect that person to bring a strong team into office. Such a team would not be strong if it did not include some of the tried and tested current Cabinet Ministers. Obviously, the Presidency itself of a new Government in 2009 would be the centre of focus and the nation will watch closely who will be appointed as Deputy President. One thing that is sure is that the programme started by President Mbeki to rejuvenate the continent and the various peacekeeping initiatives will keep his successor very busy, especially on the Big Debate about the future of the continent. However in my own observation we would need two Deputy Presidents to take the load off from the new President. You can have a first and second Deputy President in terms of seniority. One of those Deputy posts should be earmarked for one of the current successful Ministers and should be charged with administration, financial discipline and the economic cluster with emphasis on checking up on implementation of decisions approved by Cabinet. The other Deputy can focus on overall social policy implementation and coordination. The President will not focus only on foreign affairs and peacekeeping but will also have the criminal justice cluster report directly to him/her to build confidence in government’s seriousness about fighting crime. Contrary to the view of ANC Secretary-General Kgalema Motlanthe, talking about a need to have a Prime Minister’s post, such a notion – in my view – will not take us anywhere. The tasks of driving the Government should be allocated among the suggested Presidency structure, because the President will still have executive powers and guide cabinet, but the monitoring and implementation of policy is key. Finally, I wish to thank the African Heritage Society for the invitation to share my views with you on this highly-charged topic, I hope I have contributed in my small way on how we see the future of our country. If we had a strong opposition in the country that could match the ruling party toe to toe, we wouldn’t be so worried about who succeeds Mbeki. The onus is on the voters of South Africa to carefully scrutinise this succession process and perhaps reward those parties in 2009 who are calling for a better electoral system, regulated party funding, and decisive leadership on burning issues. Then we can get away from the perception that Government is successfully feeding people distorted information through the state-controlled media. Indeed, the strengthening of the opposition depends on the voters realising that they have given the ANC many chances, and their vote for the ANC should not be cast in stone, especially when they are being spoon-fed candidates and policies that run counter to the voters’ precise needs and aspirations. South Africa needs a Government that will listen to its people. The country needs a ruling party in Parliament that will make laws with them, instead of simply imposing laws without consultation, where only the well-connected ever get access to the portfolio committees. The promotion of checks and balances as enshrined in our Constitution depends on the voters themselves, by ensuring that they don’t empower only one political entity.” 5. CONCLUSION In the last 13 years we know that the SABC – especially TV – has been a monopoly of the ruling party. Sometimes I long for the transitional period after CODESA during the TEC period, when all political parties had access to the SABC. We thought that the new dispensation would be a continuation of that open and balanced approach. Alas. Alas. We now have a SABC that is worse than it was under the old National Party. Never before has live coverage been so generously provided for the ruling party’s events, be it Congresses, Councils, anniversary celebrations or election rallies. When others like ourselves approach the SABC for equal treatment we are sent from pillar to post and treated with condescension. We are made to feel like exiles in our own country, because the people are denied access to balanced news and are instead fed a stream of biased propaganda. The new SABC Board should not underestimate the desire of South Africans for an open debate on the issues facing the country and the continent. Let them free the airwaves. Like we did with the floor-crossing legislation, the UDM must take the lead, even if we need to go the highest court in the land to have the current policy reviewed. There is no way that it can be fair that the ruling party can get hours to launch their manifesto whilst other parties have to make do with a few minutes. It is utter rubbish. It seems this policy is carefully designed to promote a one-party state. While other political parties have to beg for recorded snippets, the ANC’s manifesto launches and the closing rallies (siyayinqoba) are given blanket live coverage. Of course the IEC way of doing things also requires amendment as argued earlier in this document. Finally, let’s go out there and educate people further about these issues. I hope that after you have read this paper you are better informed and it will assist the structures down to branch level to workshop these issues. DANKIE |
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